Congrats, everyone: we made it through the first week of the NCAA Tournament. We got plenty of answers during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, but now we’re left with big questions facing the remaining survivors.
The answers will come starting on Thursday night, but in the meantime, here are the most compelling questions facing each of the Sweet Sixteen teams.
Alabama: Is the post scoring for real?
The Crimson Tide finally shook off pesky Robert Morris in the first round thanks to a combined 35 points from 6-foot-11 senior center Clifford Omoruyi and 6-foot-7 sophomore forward Mouhamed Dioubate. Those two then combined to score 20 points in Sunday’s 80-66 win over Saint Mary’s. The Tide outscored the Gaels 42-30 in the paint. Alabama runs an analytics-style offense predicated on shots from behind the three-point line and at the rim, but usually the Tide scores inside on drives, not post feeds. Omoruyi and Dioubate gave Bama a different look than they’ve had for most of the season. It should serve the team well against a BYU squad that doesn’t have any starters taller than 6-foot-8.
Arkansas: Will Adou Theiro play — and if so, how well?
I’ll admit I was skeptical when John Calipari said he would play Boogie Fland in the first round after the 6-foot-2 freshman point guard missed the previous 15 games following thumb surgery. Not only did Fland play, he was a key contributor during his combined 44 minutes against Kansas and St. John’s. He will only get better with a few more days of practice. Now the question is whether 6-foot-6 junior guard Adou Thiero, who leads the team in scoring (15.6 points per game) and rebounding (6.0) but hasn’t played since Feb. 22 because of a hyperextended knee, will be available against Texas Tech. Calipari suggested last week that Thiero might play in the Razorbacks’ second round. Arkansas could really use him to fight against the Red Raiders’ formidable frontcourt.
Auburn: Is Johni Broome going to be Johni Broome again?
No player in college basketball had a better season than the Tigers’ 6-foot-11 senior forward, but Broome has been curiously human of late. He had eight points in the Tigers’ loss at Texas A&M on March 4. He had 14 in Thursday’s first-round win over Alabama State and just eight points on 4 of 13 shooting in the second-round win over Creighton. To be sure, those aren’t bad numbers (he added 12 rebounds against the Bluejays), but the thing that made Auburn so great is that Broome was putting up otherworldy numbers for most of the season. You can win a couple of games in the NCAA Tournament without your best player being at his best, but if the Tigers are going to make it to San Antonio, Broome will have to carry them there.
BYU: Will Egor Demin bring his A game?
The Cougars’ 6-foot-9 point guard has tantalized NBA scouts, but he also had an uneven season that is typical of a freshman. He played arguably his best back-to-back games last week in Denver. Demin, who shot 28.1 percent from three-point range this season, made 3 of 7 and had 15 points in BYU’s first-round win over VCU. He has also averaged 3.0 turnovers per game to 5.4 assists but had 8 assists and 1 turnover in the 89-81 win over Wisconsin. If Demin’s up-and-down season stays up like this, they’ve got at least one more win in them.
Duke: Can Tyrese Proctor keep this up?
For all the attention on Cooper Flagg and the other freshman prodigies, Proctor, a 6-foot-6 junior guard, has quietly had a solid season. He ranks third on the team in scoring and is making a career-best 39.7 percent from three-point range. The Aussie native was thought to have one-and-done potential when he first came to Duke, but after testing the NBA draft waters last year, he decided to return to Durham — which, in turn, convinced Jon Scheyer to let Jeremy Roach transfer to Baylor. Proctor was ridiculous during the Blue Devils’ two games in Raleigh, making a combined 13 of his 16 attempts from three. He also led the Blue Devils with 19 points on 6 of 14 three-point shooting in their ACC Tournament final win over Louisville. Obviously, we can’t expect Proctor to continue shooting 81 percent from three, but if he remains efficient from behind the arc, Duke is pretty much unbeatable.
Florida: How confident is this team?
There are two ways to look at the Gators’ second-round escape against UConn. Either their confidence, which was sky high coming off that SEC Tournament triumph, was punctured by a middling opponent, or it was renewed because of how the Gators closed out the win. I’m pretty sure it’s the latter. I’d be confident, too, if I had a player like Walter Clayton, Jr., who clearly relished the opportunity to take big shots down the stretch. I think the close call will give the Gators muscle memory for the next time they’re tested — and they are going to be tested.
Houston: Is this Kelvin Sampson’s time?
People drastically underestimate the role that luck plays in the NCAA Tournament. In 2021, Sampson got the Cougars to the Final Four, only to run into a great Baylor team that won the national championship two nights later. The following year, the Cougars shot 1 for 20 from three in the Elite Eight and still lost a close game to Villanova. Last year, Houston was a No. 1 seed but lost its All-American point guard Jamal Shead in the opening minutes of the Cougars’ Sweet Sixteen game against Duke — and still nearly pulled off the win before falling 54-51. Sampson has done an incredible job with this program and has had the Cougars knocking on the proverbial door for a while. A little more luck, and they’ll kick it open.
Kentucky: Is it really that hard to beat a team three times?
That’s what everyone says, but I’ve always felt like if you’ve beaten a team twice, that must mean you’re better. The Wildcats will have a much better chance with Lamont Butler healthy and effective. The 6-foot-2 senior point guard has been battling an injured shoulder the last two months and has been in and out of the lineup. He missed most of Kentucky’s last two games in the SEC Tournament, went scoreless in the first round win over Troy and then had 14 points, 5 assists, 2 rebounds and 2 turnovers in Sunday’s 84-75 win over Illinois. Butler did not play when the Wildcats won 78-73 at Illinois on Jan. 28 but he did have 6 points, 4 assists and 0 turnovers in UK’s 75-64 win at home on Feb. 11. My guess is that Rick Barnes will work a lot the next few days on the Vols’ three-point defense given that Kentucky shot 12 for 24 from behind the arc in both wins.
Maryland: Will the lack of bench production catch up with the Terps?
The whole “Crab Five” shtick is cute, but at some point the Terps will have to win with some depth. They rank 310th on KenPom in percentage of bench minutes and got just two bench points in Sunday’s 72-71 win over Colorado State. Maryland has gone 16-4 over its last 20 games. Those four losses came by a total of nine points. Now Maryland is facing a team in Florida that has a deep bench full of big dudes who defend aggressively and guards who love to attack the rim. That could put Maryland forwards Derik Queen and Julian Reese in foul trouble. If that happens, then Kevin Willard is going to have to go to his bench, and there’s not much indication those guys are ready.
Michigan: Can the Wolverines take care of the ball?
Turnovers have been Michigan’s biggest issue all season. The Wolverines rank dead last in the Big Ten in turnover percentage and committed a league-high 13.6 turnovers per game in league play. They turned it over 14 times against UCSD and almost fumbled the game away, but they only committed nine turnovers in the win over Texas A&M. Auburn isn’t the most disruptive defensive team in the country (No. 164 on KenPom in steals percentage), but I’m sure Bruce Pearl will have his guys swarm those Michigan guards as much as possible. If Michigan gives up the ball, it will feed Auburn’s devastating transition game. If it doesn’t, the Wolverines have a chance to pull off the upset.
Michigan State: Will the Spartans’ three-point shooting be their undoing?
The storyline for Michigan State this season was similar to that of St. John’s. The Spartans are ranked 323rd in the county in three-point shooting at 31.0 percent. The Storm were 340th at 30.1 percent. That finally caught up with St. John’s when it shot 2 for 22 in its second-round loss to Arkansas. It almost knocked out the Spartans when they shot 4 of 15 in the second round against New Mexico. Michigan State survived, but that math gets more challenging as a team advances into the tournament. It’s also worth nothing that Michigan State had 32 fast break points in its two games last week while its opponents had three. Ole Miss ranks No. 3 on KenPom in turnover percentage, so if Michigan State is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to make more outside shots.
Ole Miss: Is there a better coach in college basketball than Chris Beard?
Note I didn’t say Beard was the best coach in the sport, but I am suggesting there is no one better. He won an NCAA Tournament game at Little Rock, he took Texas Tech to an Elite Eight and the national championship game, he had Texas rolling when he was fired midway through his second season for being arrested during a domestic dispute. Now, in just his second season in Oxford, he has taken the Rebels to the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in their history and the first time since 2001. Ole Miss put on a masterful display of offense against Iowa State, which is one of the top defensive teams in the country, shooting 58 percent (11 of 19 from three) and committing just eight turnovers while putting up a whopping 91 points. It will take another great effort to repeat that against Michigan State, but at this point, nothing Beard does would surprise me.
Purdue: Will the soft interior hold up?
There are not too many programs that could lose a player the caliber of Zach Edey and still make it back to the Sweet Sixteen. Yet, that’s the type of program Matt Painter is running. Still, Edey’s departure left a big hole in the middle. The guy who was supposed to help fill that hole, 7-foot-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen, fractured his tibia in the second game and was lost for the season. Purdue won a lot of games despite being ranked 351st in the country in two-point defense at 56.2 percent. Houston does not have a pure post scorer and is ranked only 315th nationally in offensive free throw rate. The Cougars shoot a nation’s-best 39.8 percent from behind the arc, but Houston is still an attacking team, especially when it comes to the offensive glass. The Boilermakers are going to have to match that interior toughness if they’re going to pull off this upset.
Tennessee: Will Chaz Lanier bring his hot hand to Indianapolis?
When Lanier transferred from North Florida and started getting buckets at Tennessee, he was naturally compared to Dalton Knecht, who came from Northern Colorado last season and became SEC Player of the Year. Now Lanier has a chance to do something Knect couldn’t, and that’s lead the Vols to a Final Four. Lanier hasn’t had too many bad shooting games, but if you line up his eight worst three-point outings of the season, the Vols lost four of them. Lanier was fabulous in Lexington, scoring a combined 49 points on 10 of 18 three-point shooting in the two games and eclipsing Chris Lofton’s single-season school record for made threes. The Vols are No. 3 on KenPom in defensive efficiency and have arguably the nation’s best two-way point guard in Zakai Zeigler. So when Lanier is cooking from behind the arc, the Vols are nearly impossible to beat.
Texas Tech: Will Chance McMillian play — and if so, how well?
Same game, different team, different player, same question. McMillian, a 6-foot-2 senior guard, is the Red Raiders’ third-leading scorer at 14.2 points per game and their best long-range threat at 43.4 percent. He has missed the last three games with an upper body injury. The Red Raiders attempted an NCAA Tournament record 46 (making just 13) in the first-round win over UNCW and made 2 of 14 in the second-round win over Drake. McMillian was listed as a game-time decision last week, but he never got close to playing. So I’m not optimistic, but if he is able to help the Red Raiders, it will make a huge difference.
