I don’t mean to brag — okay, maybe I do — but I think I am actually getting better at this picking thing. I went 4-1 against the spread last week and my only miss was by a half point as Tennessee beat Alabama by three instead of three-and-a-half. Although given where Jahamai Mashack made that game winner from, it should have counted as four points.
Thus, I am now nine games over .500, which means if you have followed my advice, you are guaranteed to finish the regular season with a tidy profit. I’m sure I am tempting the gambling gods with all this hubristic chatter, especially with March Madness fast approaching, but I am intent on bringing swagger into this final batch of picks. The next time you see me picking against the spread at Hoops HQ, it will be for NCAA Tournament games.
Here are my picks for the day’s top five games:
St. John’s at Marquette
Seth’s Analysis
Marquette fans got mad at me on Twitter this week for having the gall to point out that senior point guard Kam Jones is shooting miserably from three-point range over the last two months. Yes, Jones is a great player and the Golden Eagles would be lost without him, but facts are facts. During his first 11 games, Jones averaged 20.1 points on 14.0 field goal attempts and converted 57.1 percent from the floor and 41.2 percent from there. Since then, he has averaged 17.5 points on 16.3 attempts while making 44.3 percent from the floor and 25.9 percent from three. The Golden Eagles are not a strong rebounding team and rank 345thin the country in free throw rate, per KenPom. They need their guards to be efficient and there have been times when Jones’ teammates have not been able to pick up the slack. That includes their 70-64 loss at St. John’s on Feb. 4, when Marquette shot 40.7 percent and only grabbed two offensive rebounds while the Red Storm got 18. It’s certainly possible the Golden Eagles will bring their A game at home and that St. John’s will not come in sharp given that it has already wrapped up an outright Big East regular season title. But I think the Red Storm really enjoy winning and would like to keep doing it.
Kentucky at Missouri
Seth’s Analysis
Kentucky guard Otega Oweh has been the quintessential X-factor of late. Over his last five games, Oweh scored 20 points against Vanderbilt, 28 at Oklahoma and 24 against LSU on Tuesday night. The Wildcats won all three. In the other two, he scored two points at Alabama and four against Auburn and the Wildcats lost both. The bigger question for Kentucky — and for all teams that face Missouri — is how well the Wildcats can hold up against Missouri’s relentless pressure. And the Tigers are sure to bring the heat given that they have lost three of their last four games. Missouri has been susceptible on the defensive glass, but Kentucky only ranks 206th in offensive rebound percentage and is 338th in defensive turnover percentage. The way to beat Missouri is to slow the Tigers down and grind them out, but Kentucky ranks 28th on KenPom in tempo and attempts 37.3 percent of its shots from behind the arc, which ranks 30th nationally. If those shots don’t go in, that means a lot of long rebounds for the Tigers to chase and use to initiate their fast break. Missouri is also great at attacking the rim, which is why it is No. 2 on KenPom in free throw rate. Kentucky has been a good road team this season, but this is a bad matchup and bad timing.
Alabama at Auburn
Seth’s Analysis
I know Alabama has lost four of its last six, including a 94-85 home loss to Auburn on Feb. 15, but I am still surprised the line is this big. This is a big rivalry and an important game for NCAA Tournament seeding. The problem Alabama is having right now is a lack of physical toughness. In their home loss to Florida last Saturday, the Tide got out-rebounded 46-32 and outscored them 21-17 from the foul line. Those categories shouldn’t be quite so problematic against Auburn, which ranks No. 222 nationally on KenPom in defensive rebound percentage and No. 316 in defensive free throw rate. Auburn’s vulnerability on the defensive glass was on vivid display Tuesday night when Auburn allowed Texas A&M to get 22 offensive rebounds in an 83-72 loss. Johni Broome only scored eight points after putting up nine the game before at Kentucky, so he’s due for a bounce back. I’d anticipate Auburn taking care of business, but it’s going to have to work for the win.
Arizona at Kansas
Seth’s Analysis
Kansas couldn’t quite pull off the upset at Houston Monday night, but the Jayhawks showed they’re capable of defending and competing at an elite level. KU did give up 15 offensive rebounds (that happens to just about every team that plays Houston), but overall the Jayhawks were only out-rebounded by two and held Houston to 35.3 percent shooting. They also outscored the Cougars 16-10 at the foul line, which is not easy to do on the road. If Kansas can bring that type of fight to this game, it will not go well for an Arizona squad that has the opposite problem — an explosive offense (82.2 points per game despite uneven three-point shooting) and soft defense (86.5 points against in their last four games). I’m not saying this is going to be a buzz saw, but I think we’re going to get the best of Kansas in this one.
Duke at North Carolina
Seth’s Analysis
People who say that Duke can’t be evaluated properly because the ACC is so week are missing what’s happening here. These Blue Devils are putting up historic numbers, both in terms of margin of victory and overall efficiency as measured by KenPom. Yes, the league is down, but is not easy to beat a team like Wake Forest by 33 points. Also, the Blue Devils handed Big Ten team Illinois the worst loss in its history (110-67). Eight days later that same Illinois team won at Michigan by 20 points. The larger for Duke right now is that is still playing without 6-foot-9 junior forward Maliq Brown, who is out with an injured shoulder and will hopefully be back in time for the NCAA Tournament. To be sure, North Carolina is improved since falling behind by 28 points at Duke on Feb. 1 en route to an 87-70 loss. The Tar Heels have won six in a row and I like the recent aggression shown inside by Ven-Allen Lubin, the 6-foot-8 junior transfer from Vanderbilt who is averaging 13.2 points (on 76.3 percent shooting) and 6.8 rebounds over his last five games. The Heels are shooting 47.8 percent from three during their win streak and rank fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per BartTorvik, but they are going up against a true defensive juggernaut in this one. I know it’s a big rivalry and a sizable spread, but this Duke team is ready to cover the number.
Seth’s Stats:
Last week: 4-1
Season record: 51-42-2
