Greetings, Hoops HQ family. As promised, your favorite prognosticator got off to a winning start last week and I don’t intend to look back. We’ve got a light schedule today, but not to worry – things are going to start heating up real soon. Here are my picks against the spread for five of the day’s top games:
Wake Forest at Xavier
Seth’s Analysis
This is the Skip Prosser Classic, so named for the beloved man who coached both programs. Wake Forest’s 4-0 start includes a gritty two-point win over Michigan on Sunday. Senior guard Hunter Sallis had 18 points in the win and is leading the Deacs in scoring at 16.3 points per game. Sean Miller’s Musketeers have had three easy wins against teams ranked 280, 361 and 327 on KenPom, respectively. Xavier brought in five good transfers and has benefited from the return of 6-foot-9 senior forward Zach Freemantle, who missed all of last season with an injury and leads the team in points (19.0) and rebounds (7.0. I like that the Deacs have played stronger competition to prepare them for this type of road test.
Notre Dame at Georgetown
Seth’s Analysis
It has been a while since there has been any form of excitement around Georgetown, but Ed Cooley has himself quite a find in Thomas Sorber. The 6-foot-10 freshman forward from New Jersey is averaging 22.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks as the Hoyas coasted to easy wins over Lehigh and Fairfield. Notre Dame struggled to put away Buffalo on Monday but managed to pull away for an 86-77 win behind 27 points (12 of 13 from the foul line) from 6-foot-9 junior forward Tae Davis. Both teams had first-year head coaches a year ago when the Hoyas edged the Irish in overtime in South Bend. I think they’ll have enough to prevail at home.
South Carolina at Indiana
Seth’s Analysis
The Gamecocks were picked to finish last in the SEC last year but went on to surprise everyone with a fifth-place finish and a spot in the NCAA Tournament. This season, South Carolina opened with a 74-71 home loss to North Florida. That doesn’t bode well for a road game against an overpowering Hoosiers front line paced by 6-foot-8 sophomore forward Mackenzie Mgbako, who is averaging 24.5 points on 74.1 percent shooting.
Colorado State at Ole Miss
Seth’s Analysis
This game will be played at the Landers Center in Southaven, Miss., instead of The Pavilion, but that’s close enough to be considered a home game. Chris Beard’s rosters have always been transfer heavy, so for him to bring in six of them is nothing new. Sean Pedulla, a 6-foot-1 senior from Virginia Tech, is averaging a team-best 14.7 points per game on 34.6 percent three-point shooting. As a team, the Rebels are hoisting nearly 29 threes per game. The Rams have been one of the best mid-major programs in the country the last few years under Niko Medved, but player attrition has knocked the program down a few pegs, as evidenced by their narrow overtime escape over Tennessee State at home on. Feb. 8.
Oakland at Kansas
Seth’s Analysis
It looks like this is not going to be one of Greg Kampe’s best teams, but his Golden Grizzlies still know how to muck things up. They went into Champaign on Wednesday and slowed down an explosive Illinois squad beforel losing 66-54. The question is whether the Jayhawks are going to be properly hyped following wins over North Carolina (home) and Michigan State (neutral). Oakland is going to have a huge size disadvantage inside, which will be problematic against Hunter Dickinson, but most teams are going to have trouble against him. I think Oakland will hang around, lull the Jayhawks to sleep and cover this spread through the back door.
Seth’s Stats:
Last week: 3-1-1
Season record: 3-1-1
