Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s college basketball games. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 33-32-1 and -$23 on the season. Today, we’re betting on the afternoon action in the early rounds of the ACC and B12 tournaments.
Let’s get to it.
#13 Pittsburgh vs #12 Notre Dame, 2 p.m., ACCN
Line: PITT -3.5, Over/Under 137.5
The Bet: $15 on ND +3.5 (-110)
Notre Dame allows the sixth fewest shots at the rim in the entire nation, forcing opponents into jump shots which contributes to their strong defensive rebounding rate (top 25 nationally) while operating at a deliberately slow pace. The problem emerges when teams actually penetrate Notre Dame’s defense, as they surrender quality looks at the rim, making their deterrent strategy absolutely crucial. Offensively, their inability to generate high-percentage shots results in an abundance of midrange attempts and heavy reliance on shot-making ability. Despite limiting opponents’ spacing effectively, they struggle to get to the free throw line consistently, though they do maintain strong ball security and create good spacing for their shooters. Sure, it doesn’t sound all that positive but its the first round of a down year for in ACC, this is what you get. The Fighting Irish’s defensive approach should trouble Pittsburgh, who thrives on pick-and-roll action but ranks just 315th nationally in rim attack frequency (13th in ACC) and has been fortunate with their shooting this season, particularly from three point range. Notre Dame should have enough defensive answers to keep this close and cover the spread.
#16 Colorado vs #9 TCU, 3 p.m., ESPN+
Line: TCU -1.5, Over/Under 133.5
The Bet: $20 on TCU ML (-125)
TCU excels at forcing turnovers and attacking the basket—two fundamental attributes that form the backbone of a successful basketball side. Their defensive prowess ranks in the top 20 per ShotQuality’s adjusted metrics because they dominate shot attempt frequency, following a simple formula: take more shots than your opponent. Their glaring issues—poor spacing, three point shooting and weak defense versus the perimeter—haven’t fully prevented them from competing in the challenging Big 12 conference, but it also could have gone better, too. Just three days after a 20-point road loss to Colorado, TCU now plays closer to home in Kansas City, MO with potential crowd advantage, making them an attractive buy-low candidate after experiencing severe negative shooting regression in conference play from midrange and three point territory. Colorado hasn’t secured a single win away from Boulder all season, take TCU to capitalize on Colorado’s ball security issues and control this matchup.
#15 California vs #10 Virginia Tech, 4:30 p.m., ACCN
Line: CAL -3, Over/Under 139.5
The Bet: $15 on CAL -3.5 (-105)
The California Bears have mastered the shot math equation, limiting opponents’ three-point attempts to under 33 percent on the season while generating a top-50 free throw rate offensively. They excel on the offensive glass and protect possessions well, despite experiencing some finishing regression at the rim and allowing opponents to shoot nearly 40 percent from deep in ACC play. This profile makes Cal an ideal buy-low candidate, especially against a Virginia Tech squad that lacks the shooting prowess to exploit Cal’s defensive vulnerabilities. The Hokies’ offensive approach is fundamentally flawed—they rank in the bottom ten nationally in transition frequency, settle for too many jump shots, and finish at the rim at a bottom-15 rate with only 30 percent of their attempts coming at the rim. California’s jump-shot defending ability should neutralize Virginia Tech’s perimeter-oriented attack, making the Bears a solid play laying the full possession in this ACC tournament opener.
