Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s games. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 27-23-1 and +$43 on the season. Today, we’re betting on the Big East, including a big game featuring tournament-hopeful Xavier, and the Atlantic 10.
Let’s dive in.
WHAT’S YOUR BEST BET TONIGHT?
TELL US BELOW.
George Washington at Fordham, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: George Washington -3.5, Over/Under: 156.5
The Pick: $15 on Fordham +3.5 (-110)
This Atlantic 10 clash features a struggling Fordham squad riding a six-game losing streak, though a silver lining emerged in its most recent outing where ShotQuality’s expected scores indicated the Rams should have defeated Saint Joseph’s at home. The Rams now host their final home game against a George Washington team that attacks the rim frequently but suffers from poor rebounding and shooting, the latter of which demand exceptional shot selection in order to generate points efficiently. While Fordham does allow favorable shot selection defensively, they effectively limit opponent spacing, potentially neutralizing George Washington’s ability to create the openness they desperately need on offense. The Rams surrender the fourth fewest three point attempts nationally while defending those few perimeter shots at an elite level too. Though Fordham operates at a quick tempo with shooting limitations and finishing problems at the rim, their defensive identity strengthens their case as a home underdog with clear value to keep this late-season contest within a single possession.
Xavier at Butler, 7 p.m., CBSSN
Line: Xavier -1.5 , Over/Under: 154.5
The Pick: $15 on Xavier -1.5 (-105)
Xavier continues to produce impressive shot profiles and should carry momentum from its significant home victory against Creighton into this favorable matchup at Butler. The Musketeers excel as both a shooting and passing team, creating effective spacing that generates high-percentage looks while simultaneously forcing opponents into poor shot selection. Their defensive metrics show some statistical noise — slightly unlucky at defending the rim but fortunate against three pointers — yet their sharpshooting and disciplined half-court defense have made them expected and actual winners in five consecutive contests. Butler’s primary strength lies in drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, but they’re hampered by the nation’s second lowest turnover forcing rate, limited rim attacks, and inefficient transition offense — all playing directly into Xavier’s preferred style. With Butler underperforming defensively throughout the season and Xavier boasting superior shooting and defensive metrics across the board, laying the minimal one-and-a-half points with the Musketeers represents a sharp opportunity, even on the road.
DePaul at Providence, 6:30 p.m., FS1
Line: Providence -7.5 , Over/Under: 143.5
The Pick: $15 on DePaul +7.5 (-110)
DePaul has struggled mightily this season, but beneath the losses lies a team still capable of covering spreads by beating its deservedly low expectations. The Blue Demons rank in the top 75 nationally in passing efficiency per ShotQuality metrics and effectively limit opponents’ three-point attempts while not surrendering excessive shots at the rim. Their most glaring weaknesses — vulnerability in transition defense and poor containment of off the dribble three pointers — won’t be fully exploited by a Providence team that struggles to capitalize in those exact areas. The Friars opt for catch and shoot three pointers, rate 296th in expected transition points per possession, generate very few turnovers and, despite solid rim protection, will likely allow DePaul to score at a sustainable rate throughout the contest. With a generous seven-and-a-half-point cushion in a home environment, the Blue Demons have multiple pathways to cover this spread.
