Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s games. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
After a tough Monday, we are currently 25-22-1 and +$30 on the season. Today, we’re betting on the biggest conferences, but taking a look at some under the radar spots that deliver the best value.
Let’s get started.
WHAT’S YOUR BEST BET TONIGHT?
TELL US BELOW.
Creighton at Seton Hall, 7 p.m., FS1
Line: Creighton +10 , Over/Under: 133.5
The Pick: $15 on Seton Hall +10 (-110)
Seton Hall has been playing better of late, beating UConn and keeping it close against Xavier, while also pushing St. John’s to the end of the game with stellar defense. Now the Pirates return home for a senior day game against Creighton. Seton Hall forces a lot of turnovers and moves at a slow tempo, so if you’re sloppy, you might not have enough time to get back into a position to cover a large spread. The Pirates’ opponent features one of the best defensive players in the Big East in Ryan Kalkbrenner and a high level of drop coverage that could allow for a good result on Seton Hall’s mid-range attempts, though the Pirates aren’t talented shooters despite taking a high percentage of those shots. With the slow pace and the focus on simply getting a win for the Blue Jays, I like taking the three full possessions behind the slept-on home underdog.
16 Memphis at UT San Antonio, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: Memphis -8.5 , Over/Under: 157.5
The Pick: $15 on UTSA +8.5 (-105)
This game might not look super exciting on the surface with a line that suggests Memphis is going to run away with it, but I don’t think it will be that simple. UTSA sits third-best in the country in free throw shooting expected efficiency, creates high spacing on offense and per ShotQuality is expected to be a top-25 rated three-point shooting team that also forces turnovers. The Roadrunners’ biggest problem when matching up with Memphis is that they are a bad defensive rebounding team and Memphis might be able to get all of their own misses for putback attempts. That said, UTSA can hit its shots and is definitely the victim of a hard-luck season with opponents hitting mid-range jumpers in conference play at a highly elevated rate. Memphis is going to be a challenge, but the Tigers do not defend the rim well and will turn the ball over frequently on offense, giving UTSA the chances it will need to keep this within three possessions.
Indiana at Oregon, 9 p.m., FS1
Line: Oregon -6.5 , Over/Under: 146.5
The Pick: $15 on Oregon -6.5 (-105)
The Oregon Ducks are a consistent offensive force that can shoot, space the floor, attack the rim and keep hold of the ball successfully against opponent steal attempts. Their issues are that they do not defend the rim particularly well and on offense, they do not seem to know to attack it with a higher frequency. The Ducks are average in shot making, below average in shot selection, but pretty good defensively in both of those categories. The real edge on this game is fading Indiana, though, which is over-performing its expectations this year as a bottom-10 team in terms of quality of three-point shots allowed against (meaning opponents are taking very good threes against them). The Hoosiers are efficient attacking the rim and they do pass well, but they do not get to the rim enough to take advantage of their strong play there. The play here is the fade on Indiana in this last road game of the year before a rivalry game Saturday against Ohio State.
