Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s college basketball games — conference tournaments from coast to coast. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 38-33-1 and +28 on the season after a nice sweep yesterday. Today, we’re betting on the biggest of the conference tournaments with some potentially surprising selections….
Let’s get to it.
#9 Indiana vs #8 Oregon, 12 p.m., BTN
Line: Oregon -1.5, Over/Under 129.5
The Bet: $20 on Oregon -1.5 (-110)
The Oregon Ducks present as a formidable shooting team, rating in the top 100 for expected efficiency from three point range and top 50 in free throw shooting, demonstrating their above average shot making capabilities. While they create excellent spacing on offense and maintain good ball control, their half court defense shows vulnerability despite adequately defending shooters and deterring rim action. Indiana’s efficiency attacking the rim will be tested against Oregon’s deterrent factor, but the Hoosiers’ strong transition game could face resistance from the Ducks’ capable transition defense. The deciding factor may be Indiana’s defensive rating at 341st in spacing, placing them in the 93rd percentile nationally — a weakness Oregon’s jump shooters should exploit mercilessly to secure a victory while covering this modest spread.
#5 Iowa St. vs #4 BYU, 12:30 p.m., ESPN2
Line: ISU -3.5, Over/Under 146.5
The Bet: $15 on BYU +3.5 (-110)
BYU stands as one of the nation’s most offensively sound teams, ranking as the fifth most efficient rim-attacking unit according to ShotQuality’s expected data while showcasing impressive passing, shooting, and spacing abilities. The Cougars run effectively in transition and launch three pointers at a top-20 frequency rate, complemented by strong rebounding and elite rim deterrence that forces opponents into below average mid range and perimeter shots. Iowa State’s strength in forcing turnovers and attacking the rim becomes considerably less effective when confronted with BYU’s defensive scheme that excels at keeping teams away from high percentage looks. The Cyclones’ 243rd ranking in mid range expected efficiency becomes their Achilles heel in this matchup, as their shooters will struggle to find rhythm without the rim attacks needed to create space. BYU should not only cover the spread but presents legitimate upset potential in this compelling tournament clash.
#13 Texas vs #5 Texas A&M 3:30 p.m., SECN
Line: TA&M -5.5, Over/Under 139.5
The Bet(s): $10 on Texas +5.5 (-105), $5 on Texas ML (+215)
The Longhorns enter this heated in-state SEC showdown having endured remarkable bad luck at the rim, where their expected shooting percentage of 63 percent has translated to just 61 percent for the season and a dismal 57 percent in conference play. A&M’s defensive vulnerability against shooters should open up the floor for Texas, whose transition offense and ability to create quality looks off the dribble could prove decisive despite their mid range heavy approach. The Aggies force minimal mid range action while allowing abundant three point attempts, creating a stylistic clash that likely favors the Longhorns’ offensive versatility. Though A&M boasts elite rebounding and generates frequent free throw opportunities, their poor shooting and suspect rim defense make the five-and-a-half point spread appear excessive for a Texas team poised to capitalize on their mismatches. While the spread offers solid value, the enticing +215 moneyline merits a smaller complementary wager in what projects as a highly competitive battle for Lone Star State supremacy.
