Daily Best Bets for Saturday, March 8: St. John’s Marquette, Baylor Houston and Samford Furman

St. John’s at Marquette, 12 p.m., FOX

Line: Marquette -2, Over/Under 143.5

The Pick: $25 on Marquette -2.5 (+100)

Marquette owns the seventh lowest turnover rate in the nation while forcing the tenth most turnovers in the country on defense, pairing that with high expected efficiency attacking the rim, a strong transition presence and a high frequency of three point shots. Their one weakness is allowing opponents to take good quality shots from beyond the arc, but they’ve been a bit unlucky in the last few months, expected to beat both Creighton and UConn in February. The Red Storm have already clinched sole possession of the Big East regular season title and will be without guard Deivon Smith, both likely leading to more bench minutes in this contest. The Red Storm struggle to defend the three point shot, so Marquette’s strength should be highlighted easily on their own floor without the roar of The Garden. Plus, St. John’s doesn’t like to shoot the three, meaning they might not be able to take advantage of Marquette’s weaknesses. Take the home team to cover the small spread against a St. John’s squad that has little left to prove in the regular season.

#4 Samford vs #5 Furman, 8:30 p.m., ESPN+

Line: Samford -2, Over/Under 156.5

The Pick: $15 on Samford -2.5 (-102)

The Samford Bulldogs force turnovers at a top-20 rate, combining that with a fast tempo and elite spacing, plus high-frequency and efficient three point shooting. This is all known to some as “Bucky Ball” — coach Bucky McMillan’s signature style that blitzes opponents on offense while hoping to win the battle with strong shotmaking and smart shot selection. The tradeoff is weak defense at the rim and poor defensive rebounding, but their offensive firepower makes up for these deficiencies. Furman, their opponent, takes decent shots but lacks isolation finishers while relying heavily on three point attempts, and they’ve been one of the luckiest teams in the conference this season. The Paladins’ inefficiencies at the free throw line and bottom-20 rate attacking the rim create serious reasons to trust Samford to get it done in this SoCon tournament game where their high octane offense should deliver.

3 Houston at Baylor, 10 p.m., ESPN

Line: Houston -4.5, Over/Under 130.5

The Pick: $10 on Baylor +4.5 (-110)

The Bears have had a tough season but possess the talent to turn it around at any minute, potentially defying resume-based expectations to those who understand their intangibles. Baylor is a strong shooting team that creates spacing for open looks while attacking the offensive glass and forcing turnovers on defense. They operate at a methodically slow tempo, which allows them to balance offense and defense — and they’ll need every ounce of both against Houston, who will also happily slow the game down and make every possession count. Houston has some of the best jump shooting talent in the game, but Baylor’s defense should be well suited to keep them in check, especially with the home court advantage in Waco. The main concern for the Bears will be defending the three point line, but if they can force the Cougars inside the arc, I think they could even win this contest outright to end their regular season campaign on a high note. Grab the points to be sure.