Bracketology 2025: Men's NCAA Tournament Projections

Alabama picked up the biggest win of the weekend for a team situated towards the top end of the bracket as the Crimson Tide took down Auburn on the road. This doesn’t quite elevate Alabama back to a No. 1 seed, but it does make things a bit more complicated as we get into conference tournament play. Duke, Houston, Tennessee and Florida also came away with victories. The No. 1 seed line remains the same for now with Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida. Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan State have all but assured themselves a No. 2 seed at worst, while St. John’s continues to rise up the board after winning the Big East outright.

As far as the bubble goes, there were some very interesting results over the weekend. Nebraska lost at home to Iowa, pretty much ending its chances for an at-large bid as the Cornhuskers did not even qualify for the Big Ten Tournament. Oklahoma went on the road and beat Texas in a game involving two teams whose seasons were on the line. Other key wins were Arkansas over Mississippi State, Indiana taking down Ohio State, Georgia beating Vanderbilt and Xavier finishing the regular season strong with a win over Providence. As far as other bubble teams unable to take advantage? North Carolina lost to Duke, Boise State lost to Colorado State and of course Ohio State falling at Indiana.

Here are a few thoughts regarding today’s bracket:

Drake won the Missouri Valley Tournament which ended up being a win for every team on or near the bubble. The Bulldogs were likely going to be an at-large bid if they had lost to Bradley in the finals, so this assures that there won’t be a bid-stealer out of this league. Drake can be seeded anywhere between a 10-12 seed, but we still need to see how everything plays out for a better idea.
After Wisconsin lost at home to Penn State, the Badgers dropped from a No. 2 seed down to a No. 4 seed. A No. 3 seed is still attainable, but losing at home to a non-tournament team did some serious harm. The big winner from this loss? St. John’s. The Red Storm are now the fourth No. 2 seed and actually only have one loss this year! The question is, would St. John’s prefer a No. 2 seed, but not be in the East or would it rather a No. 3 seed plus the East. Seems like a pretty easy answer to me.
Memphis is going to be one of the more difficult teams to seed. I view its profile similar to that of South Carolina from last year, meaning it has a strong strength-of-record, but weak predictive metrics compared to the field. South Carolina ended up getting a No. 6 seed last year and while I don’t think Memphis will get that high (unless it wins the AAC Tournament), I do currently have the Tigers as a No. 6 seed. The AAC provides them no true opportunities and this team proved itself in non-conference play with wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Ole Miss and at Clemson.
Xavier is just 1-8 versus Q1 opponents, but a solid 9-10 against Q1 and Q2. It’s not the greatest of resumes, but the Musketeers do have three wins over the field in defeating Creighton, UConn and winning at Marquette. They also sport a quality SOR ranking of No. 40 and a WAB ranking of No. 46. As a result of other bubble teams losing, such as Nebraska, Boise State and Texas, Xavier ends up in my field as the last team in. A win over Marquette in the Big East Tournament is probably necessary for a little comfort.
Boise State is currently my first team out of the field. The good news for the Broncos? They still have opportunities. Boise State gets to face San Diego State in the quarterfinals of the MWC Tournament. If its fortunate enough to beat the Aztecs, it’ll then get No. 1 seed New Mexico. Win both of those games and I think it will be very difficult to keep the Broncos out of the field.
Ohio State opens up the Big Ten Tournament against Iowa. This is a must win for the Buckeyes. A loss to the Hawkeyes would drop them to 17-15 overall and would make it extremely difficult to receive an at-large bid. I think if Ohio State can avoid this loss, it’ll be right there on the cut line.