Saturday will be like college basketball Groundhog Day at Madison Square Garden. In the last 11 days, two teams that were highly ranked in the preseason secured upset victories over higher ranked opponents, turning their seasons around after shaky starts. Arkansas and UConn beat Michigan and Gonzaga, respectively. On Saturday, North Carolina will get its turn to do the same, as they face No. 18 UCLA in The World’s Most Famous Arena.
Unranked North Carolina (6-5) has not had much success versus quality teams so far this season. They are 1-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, their lone win coming over Dayton in Maui. A win against UCLA (also a Quadrant 1 game) would qualify as their best win, as well as a much-needed confidence boost for a team that is very lacking in it.
On Tuesday, North Carolina lost to a good Florida team, 90-84. As they have too many times this season, the Tar Heels started the game slow and fell behind by as many as 17 points in the first half before cutting the Gators’ lead to 12 at halftime. North Carolina came out energized in the second half and quickly made it a game. However, despite taking a four-point lead with just over four minutes to play, North Carolina was out-toughed and out-executed by Florida down the stretch, resulting in another deflating loss.
After the game, North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis struggled to find the words to explain why his team has been unable to put a complete game together against top competition. “I can’t,” Davis said. “To play with that type of energy and effort in the second half and not have that consistently in the first half or for an entire game is something that’s been the consistent theme for us this year. I think I’ve told you guys before, it’s not sustainable. It’s just not. You may be able to get away with it one time against Dayton, but it’s just not sustainable, especially against good teams.”
The Tar Heels are running out of time to turn their season around. UCLA is their last power conference opponent before they get into the heart of ACC play. As of Friday, North Carolina is ranked No. 30 in KenPom, but they are ranked 46th in the NET. As you may have heard, the ACC is down this season, so it will be harder for Carolina to make up ground in the NET without a big win on Saturday.
North Carolina’s main problem is the lack of production from the frontcourt. The Heels’ top four scorers are all guards and their leading rebounder is a guard, 6-foot-3 junior Seth Trimble. They are led in scoring by fifth-year senior guard RJ Davis, who while averaging a team-high 18.6 points per game to go along with 4 assists and 4.4 rebounds is shooting only 37.1% from the field and a dismal 25.3% from three point range. “RJ’s been a big-time player for five years,” Davis said Tuesday night. “I’ve never been concerned or thought about percentages in terms of his shooting. My focus is the growth and the potential of this team.”
Trimble has had a breakout season. He’s averaging 15 points a contest and a team-high 4.9 rebounds. Sophomore point guard Elliot Cadeau is averaging 11.5 points and 5.7 assists and freshman and Bronx native Ian Jackson is averaging 10.8 points off the bench in 20.4 minutes. Davis has been searching for answers in the frontcourt, with junior Ven-Allen Lubin, fifth-year senior Jae’lyn Withers and junior Jalen Washington all contributing roughly 6 points and 5 rebounds apiece in less than 20 minutes a game. That is simply not enough.
Beginning against the Bruins on Saturday, Davis may have to lean even more heavily on his guards, particularly Jackson, who has provided energy, athleticism and scoring in somewhat limited minutes.
UCLA is in a much stronger position than North Carolina heading into Saturday’s game, albeit against a much easier schedule (UCLA ranks 303rd in strength of schedule, North Carolina ranks No. 7, according to KenPom). UCLA will play Gonzaga next week, making this two-game stretch its toughest to date. The Bruins (10-1) are ranked 12th in the Net and 13th in KenPom. They are 2-0 in Quad 1 opportunities (wins at Oregon and versus Arizona). Their lone loss was to New Mexico on a neutral court.
Saturday’s game will be a contrast in styles. Whereas North Carolina relies on its offense, guard play and pace, UCLA plays at a much slower tempo, is No 4 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and is led in scoring by 6-foot-8 junior forward Tyler Bilodeau (14.1ppg, 5.5rpg), an Oregon State transfer, and a pair of big guards in 6-foot-9 sophomore Eric Dailey Jr. (11.6ppg, 4.8rpg) and 6-foot-6 senior Kobe Johnson (7.7ppg, 5.3rpg, 3.6apg). Those players transferred from Oklahoma State and USC, respectively, two of the six transfers Cronin added to his roster last spring in an effort to get older following last season’s disastrous 16-17 campaign.
After beating rival Arizona last Saturday in what is now, weirdly, a non-conference game (Arizona is in its first year as a member of the Big 12), UCLA beat Prairie View A&M 111-75 on Tuesday in a tune-up of sorts for North Carolina. The Bruins’ fourth-leading scorer, sophomore guard Sebastian Mack (9.2ppg), played only three minutes in the win. Cronin pulled no punches when asked why after the game.
“[Mack] wasn’t ready to play, didn’t deserve to play,” he said. “It’s called accountability. Now I know everybody else thinks I’m too tough on kids and all that. But, I just don’t know what world they’re going to leave here and go in where you don’t have to be accountable and people are going to pay them. Right now, they get their scholarship, they can transfer, I can’t get rid of them, they can go be a free agent, they can get more money, I gotta pay them. This is literally like The Wizard of Oz or something in a movie.”
This is a big game for both teams, but there’s a big difference: UCLA wants to win. North Carolina needs to win. Hubert Davis knows what it will take to accomplish that goal. The question is whether he can get that across to his players. “When I say our backs are against the wall, that’s just who I am, that’s my personality,” Davis said. “This is an opportunity for us to get back up and move forward. And we’re gonna do that.”
